Spring Severe Storms Return This Week – NWS Storm Prediction Center

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the central Great
Plains into the western Ozarks late Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night.

…Central Great Plains into the Ozarks…
A mid-level low and attendant trough, initially over western WY and
the eastern Great Basin, will move east-southeastward to the central
High Plains. A belt of strong cyclonically curved 500 mb flow will
move through the base of the trough and overspread a destabilizing
warm sector across the central and southern Great Plains. In the
low levels, a surface cyclone over western KS will develop eastward
and elongate as a cold front over the central High Plains surges
southward into northwest TX and the northwest half of OK by early
Wednesday morning.

A capped but gradually moistening boundary layer will spread
northward into northern OK and KS during the day on strengthening
southerly low-level flow. Strong deep-layer ascent near the surface
low will likely favor initial thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) and strong
flow will support storm organization with large hail and severe
gusts the primary hazard. A strengthening LLJ during the evening
over OK/KS and associated isentropic lift will probably lead to
additional storms and the organization of a thunderstorm cluster
moving east-southeast during the night into parts of southeast KS
and adjacent parts of OK/AR/MO.

Farther south across OK, thunderstorm development is less likely
during the day owing to the aforementioned cap. Nonetheless, a low
probability scenario for a storm or two southward along the dryline
cannot be ruled out. It seems plausible the risk for isolated to
scattered storms will focus overnight across northern and eastern OK
as strong large-scale forcing promotes isolated to scattered storms.
Hail/wind would be the primary risks with this activity.

..Smith.. 04/04/2021

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1717Z (8:17PM)